Machine learning for prediction of 30-day mortality after ST elevation myocardial infraction: An Acute Coronary Syndrome Israeli Survey data mining study

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Background: Risk scores for prediction of mortality 30-days following a ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) have been developed using a conventional statistical approach. Objective: To evaluate an array of machine learning (ML) algorithms for prediction of mortality at 30-days in STEMI patients and to compare these to the conventional validated risk scores. Methods: This was a retrospective, supervised learning, datamining study. Out of a cohort of 13,422 patients from the Acute Coronary Syndrome Israeli Survey (ACSIS) registry, 2782 patients fulfilled inclusion criteria and 54 variables were considered. Prediction models for overall mortality 30 days after STEMIwere developed using 6ML algorithms. Modelswere compared to each other and to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and Thrombolysis InMyocardial Infarction (TIMI) scores. Results: Depending on the algorithm, using all available variables, prediction models' performance measured in an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ranged from 0.64 to 0.91. The best models performed similarly to theGlobal Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score (0.87 SD 0.06) and outperformed the Thrombolysis InMyocardial Infarction (TIMI) score (0.82 SD 0.06, p < 0.05). Performance ofmost algorithms plateaued when introduced with 15 variables. Among the top predictors were creatinine, Killip class on admission, blood pressure, glucose level, and age. Conclusions: We present a data mining approach for prediction of mortality post-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. The algorithms selected showed competence in prediction across an increasing number of variables. ML may be used for outcome prediction in complex cardiology settings. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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